signHow long does it take for the disrupters to become the establishment ? An interesting topic raised during a talk at the Gartner AADI event that Smart421 were sponsoring a couple of weeks ago.

I was thinking specifically about Microsoft when I started this train of thought. Once the new kid on the block with DOS, the PC and Windows – they are now the prime target of the new disruptive vendors (Google etc.).  I remember Microsoft holding sway for a generation.

Now Apple is the establishment, I give it five more years. Facebook three – as it’s now being colonised by the 50+ generation – gen X and Y don’t think it is cool any more.

The internet and YouTube allowed everyone to showcase their ‘talent’ to the world. Mobile and ubiquitous connectivity disrupted monopoly distribution channels for film and music – allowing micro-trends to surface.

Amazon Web Services through Cloud, democratised the technology landscape environment where ideas are the currency and access to compute power does not stand in the way of creativity or a business ideas.

What we are seeing now is a multitude of Vendors, Mobile Devices, Platforms and Social Media fads rising and falling in cycles. When these cycles converge it creates a paradigm shift in the system.  We’re seeing it now with the fall of the PC and the rise of Tablets (or portable surfaces) etc.

Any Futurologists out there that want to bet on the next ?